India, China are burying the hatchet: A challenge for the US?

India is playing its geopolitical cards well. It has been balancing relations between adversaries Russia and the US as well as Israel and Iran. While the US has been cautious about India's ties with Russia, China and Russia have been cautious about India's growing strategic partnership with the US.

Ahead of the BRICS summit in Russia, which the US will watch with care due to de-dollarisation efforts by the BRICS countries which challenge American world order, India and China have started burying the hatchet, an indication of the narrowing of the biggest rift in BRICS.

Foreign secretary Vikram Misri announced today that India and China have come to an agreement regarding patrolling arrangements along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in border areas. "India and China have reached an agreement on patrolling arrangements along the LAC in border areas leading to disengagement and a resolution of the issues that had arisen in 2020 and we will be taking the next steps on this," Misri said. The foreign secretary made these remarks while addressing a special briefing on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's upcoming visit to Kazan in Russia for the BRICS summit.

The US counts on India to contain China in the Indo-Pacific and may also consider India's membership of BRICS as balancing the anti-West tilt of the alliance, given the predominance of Russia and China in it. With India improving its ties with China just when it is being hounded by Canada and the US over its alleged operations to curb Khalistanis in those countries who order hits in India, many think a thaw in India-China ties could pose a new challenge to the US.

When the US wished India luck with China
The US has been wary of India and China trying to resolve their border standoff. In June, it had cautioned that Chinese leader Xi Jinping finds it very hard to show any flexibility on territorial issues.

US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, who has led US efforts to boost ties with India to push back against China's growing power, was asked at a Washington think tank about Jaishankar's comment that India would focus on finding solutions to border issues with China. "I think the truth is that anytime two countries can find a degree of the common space to reduce tensions, I think we have to support that," he said.

"I think we feel very good about this partnership," he said, while adding: "I think there are some structural issues between China and India that frankly will be difficult to resolve."

"One of the things that we've seen under Xi Jinping on anything that bridges, or touches, territorial matters, I think it's very hard for the Chinese to show any flexibility, or any desire to find common ground," he said.

The China angle in India-US ties
American skepticism towards the possibility of resolution of India-China border stand-off stemmed from the role China plays in strengthening India-US strategic relations. Since the US thinks India has an important role to play in policing the Indo-Pacific to contain the Chinese influence as well as in the event of a possible invasion of Taiwan by China, it has grown its partnership with India which involves sharing of critical technology as well as supporting India as an alternative to China for manufacturing.

Recently, India and the US have planned a joint semiconductor fab in India to supply advanced chips to the US armed forces and allied militaries as well as Indian defence forces. With an obvious China angle, India and the US have also recently signed a deal worth Rs 32,000 crore for the acquisition of 31 Predator drones, which will be distributed among the Indian Army, Navy, and Air Force. This acquisition is particularly crucial in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), where China has been rapidly expanding its naval presence and establishing turnaround facilities. The focus on India's role in the Quad after the recent summit also underlines the importance of China for growth of India-US ties. ""When it comes to the role that we expect India to play, we expect and indeed see India as a leader within the Quad," a White House official had said.

A Russia-China-India alliance?
Will resolution of border dispute between India and China pose a challenge to the US of closer ties between Russia, China and India who could lead the Global South as a counterweight to Western hegemony? It could be too early to say that because India and China has agreed to disengage on the border while the differences over the border persist and China is known to be rigid about its border disputes. Moreover, an India and China have too much of distrust and past baggage to allow any kind of close cooperation that becomes a challenge to the US or the West.

However, many would see an alliance between the three countries beginning to shape up. Reportedly, India, China and Russia are planning to collaborate to establish a nuclear power plant on the Moon. It would be first joint initiative by the three countries. In 2021, Russia and China unveiled plans for a joint lunar base, the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), with potential commissioning between 2035 and 2045. India is already collaborating with the US for its Gaganyaan mission, and there may not be much to in the Russia-China-India lunar project except attempts to balance ties with different countries.

While a Russia-China-India alliance that can challenge the West seems improbable at this time, the possibility of India and China going further in resolving their various other disputes will worry the US. At the same time, India would like to remain the favourite China+1 option for Western companies as a counterweight to the Asian giant which is struggling to prop up its sagging economy.

During Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first term, an effort by India to strengthen partnership with China, marked by Xi and Modi meeting thrice in Ahmedabad, Wuhan and Mahabalipuram, had come a cropper due to China's aggression on the border, first at Doklam and then at Galwan.