The deck may be stacked in India's favour, but Pakistan's wildcard may still mean war

Tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir have been a running sore since the end of their border war in 1947, sparking several limited conflicts. But much has changed since their last confrontation in 2019. India has enjoyed an economic boom over the past six years and -under populist strongman Narendra Modi -has grown more assertive in pursuing national-security goals. This was evident in the launch of Operation Sindoor, which abandoned past ground incursions in favour of direct air-strikes.

Pakistan, by contrast, saw growth collapse from 4.7 per cent to just 0.3 per cent in 2023, alongside soaring inflation of 29.2 per cent. Despite its reliance on China, experts say Islamabad will still need fresh IMF deals to avert default and stabilise its economy. One route to recovery lies in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). But the corridor cuts directly through Kashmir-a move India regards as a violation of its sovereignty.

Both sides may want to calm tensions now, but strictly on their own terms. And, despite the deck being stacked against it militarily, Pakistan has a wildcard that could yet tip the balance.

Its army chief, General Asim Munir, arguably the most powerful man in Pakistan today, is very different from his predecessor, General Qamar Javed Bajwa.

After the 2019 Pulwama suicide bombing in Indian-administered Kashmir, Bajwa ordered only a limited response to Indian air-strikes and released captured Indian pilot Abhinandan Varthaman, a move credited with defusing the crisis.

Munir, the son of a religious scholar and himself a Hafiz-e-Quran (one who has memorised the Qur'an), frequently emphasises Islamic ideology in his addresses.

Many believe his view of the long-running conflict with India is, at heart, a religious one. Bajwa quietly backed diplomatic engagement with India; his "Bajwa Doctrine" stressed regional stability and economic connectivity alongside defence.

Munir's speech on April 17 struck a different tone and was blamed by many - in India and internationally - for inciting the terror attacks which took place just five days later that killed 26 Indian tourists.

"We are different from Hindus in every possible way," he proclaimed, calling Kashmir Pakistan's "jugular vein" and vowing never to abandon "Kashmiris in their heroic struggle against Indian occupation".

Crucially, where Bajwa had time on his side, today's Pakistan - which is facing rising terrorism, political instability, economic crisis and regional tensions -leaves Munir under pressure to act faster and more firmly, at home and abroad.

For all Pakistan's economic limits, the final call may lie not in Islamabad, but with a general willing to risk a far wider war.

Pakistan's 660,000-strong military is less than half the size of India's and its defence spending was a tenth of its eastern neighbour last year, according to International Institute for Strategic Studies. Yet proportionally its military budget has remained contact even while economic strains have forced cuts in social welfare.

India, by contrast, spent $74.4bn on defence last year, making it Asia's second-largest military budget after China and the world's sixth-largest overall.

India's armed forces heavily outnumber those of Pakistan, with 2,527,000 paramilitary troops combed with Pakistan's 500,000, India also has and 4,201 tanks while Pakistan has 2,627.

Unlike Islamabad, however, New Delhi has a second front to potentially contend with: its border with China. Both sides have acquired new military hardware since 2019, opening up new conventional strike options.

India believed that it was at a disadvantage in 2019 because it had to rely mainly on ageing Russian jets, has since inducted 36 French-made Rafale fighter jets, with more on order for its navy.

In response Pakistan has purchased one of China's most advanced fast jets , the J-10, a rough equivalent of the Rafale, though they have ben untested in battle conditions.

In terms of ground defence, India secured Russia's battle-tested S-400, a mobile anti-aircraft missile system. Pakistan obtained the HQ-9 from China, which is based on Russia's more inferior S-300.