Thousands may miss State Pension rise next year unknowingly

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicates that the annual State Pension increase will be determined by the earnings growth measure of the Triple Lock, currently standing at 4.8 per cent (including bonuses). Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for September was recorded at 3.8 per cent.

The Triple Lock guarantees that State Pensions rise each year in line with whichever is the highest out of average annual earnings growth from May to July (4.8%), CPI in the year to September (3.8%) or 2.5 per cent. The September CPI figure of 3.8 per cent was released on October 22.

However, while millions of pensioners across Great Britain - including over one million residing in Scotland - can expect a payment increase in April next year, nearly half a million individuals over State Pension age will not be eligible for the increase.

It's estimated that 453,000 pensioners are living in a country that doesn't have a reciprocal agreement with the UK Government, meaning they won't receive the annual State Pension increase. This is despite having made the necessary National Insurance Contributions to qualify for the state Pension.

Despite the tireless efforts of the 'End Frozen Pensions' campaign, which includes an online petition supported by thousands, a visit to Parliament by 100 year old World War II veteran Anne Puckridge, and ongoing appeals to the UK Government to reconsider the policy, many expats are receiving a significantly lower State Pension compared to those living in Scotland, England, Wales or Northern Ireland, reports the Daily Record.

Campaigners had hoped that the appointment of former Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, as Canadian prime minister earlier this year, might spark discussions with the UK Government about the issue affecting over 100,000 expats residing in Canada.

The State Pension is frozen at the point of emigration for individuals mainly living in Commonwealth countries such as Canada and Australia. However, retirees residing in the USA or EU countries are eligible for the same considerations related to their State Pension as if they had remained in the UK.

A significant number of the affected pensioners (49%) are receiving £65 per week or less, with an estimated 86 per cent of all expats not being informed that their State Pension would be frozen. Campaigners report that some pensioners are receiving as little as £20.00 a week.

More information about the End Frozen Pensions Campaign can be found on their website.

State Pension uprating predictions for 2026/27

Predictions for the State Pension uprating in 2026/27 suggest that the Triple Lock is set to be determined by the earnings growth element of 4.8 per cent (including bonuses). An uprating of 4.8 per cent on the current State Pension would result in the following amounts being received.

For the Full New State Pension, the weekly amount will be £241.30 (up from £230.25), with a four-weekly pay period of £965.20 and an annual amount of £12,547.

Full New State Pension

• Weekly: £241.30 (from £230.25)
• Four-weekly pay period: £965.20
• Annual amount: £12,547

Full Basic State Pension

• Weekly: £184.90 (from £176.45)
• Four-weekly pay period: £739.60
• Annual amount: £9,614

Chancellor Rachel Reeves will confirm the annual uprating at the Autumn Budget on November 26.