Harris vs Trump Latest Polls (Oct 30, 2024): How close are the swing states?

As the US election draws closer on 5 November, the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is growing increasingly intense. Initially, it appeared the election would be a repeat battle between Trump and President Joe Biden. However, the dynamics shifted in July when Biden stepped down, endorsing his Vice-President, Kamala Harris, as the Democratic candidate.

Since entering the race, Harris has maintained a steady national lead over Trump.m Following a televised debate in Pennsylvania on 10 September, her lead expanded slightly, increasing from 2.5 percentage points to 3.3, mainly due to a slight drop in Trump’s support post-debate. In the last weeks, Trump has narrowed the gap. As of Oct 29, Harris only has a lead of 1.4 according to 538.

While national polls provide a snapshot of overall popularity, they don’t always predict the outcome due to the impact of the US electoral college . Key battleground states are crucial in determining the winner, and polling in these swing states reveals a very close battle:

Swing States at a Glance (Data from NYT Poll of Polls)

Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes): 2020 margin: D +1.2 | 2024 polling: Trump <1% lead | Pennsylvania, the battleground with the highest electoral count, is a crucial state that can streamline the path to victory for either candidate.

Georgia (16 electoral votes): 2020 margin: D +0.2 | 2024 polling: Trump +2% | Georgia's evolving demographics make it highly competitive, with Trump holding a slight lead after Biden's narrow 2020 win and Democratic Senate victories in 2021.

North Carolina (16 electoral votes): 2020 margin: R +1.3 | 2024 polling: Trump <1% lead | Historically Republican since 2012, North Carolina remains tight, though concerns over GOP gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson may affect Trump’s support.

Michigan (15 electoral votes): 2020 margin: D +2.8 | 2024 polling: Harris <1% lead | A strategic Rust Belt state for Harris, Michigan is crucial to Democrats after Biden's 2020 win, though the race remains competitive with Harris slightly ahead.

Arizona (11 electoral votes): 2020 margin: D +0.3 | 2024 polling: Trump +3% | Trump’s standing in Arizona is bolstered by Sun Belt support and Hispanic voters, while Democrats bank on an abortion rights measure to drive turnout.

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): 2020 margin: D +0.6 | 2024 polling: Harris <1% lead | Wisconsin is pivotal in Harris’s route to victory and could again serve as the tipping-point state for the Electoral College majority.

Nevada (6 electoral votes): 2020 margin: D +2.4 | 2024 polling: Harris <1% lead | Nevada’s diversity and nonpartisan voter growth make it competitive, though its smaller electoral vote count makes it less likely to be decisive.