With the passing of Pope Francis , the Roman Catholic Church is preparing to choose its next spiritual leader, a decision that could shape the future of over a billion followers worldwide.
As the world turns its eyes to the smoke rising from the Sistine Chapel, the 2025 papal conclave promises a blend of ancient ritual, global politics, and unpredictable outcomes.
Here's all you need to know about how the next pope will be chosen.
What is the papal conclave?
The papal conclave is the secretive, centuries-old process by which the Roman Catholic Church elects a new pope. This week, 133 cardinal electors , among the Church’s most senior officials, will gather behind sealed doors in the Sistine Chapel to begin this sacred ritual.
The term conclave comes from the Latin cum clave, meaning “with a key” — a nod to how the cardinals are literally locked inside the chapel until a decision is made.
When does it start?
The conclave begins on today, May 7, 2025, exactly 16 days after the death of Pope Francis.
Who can become pope?
Technically, any Catholic male is eligible. But in practice, for centuries, popes have only been chosen from among the cardinals.
Where does it happen?
Inside Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel, which is swept for listening devices and sealed shut for the duration of the conclave. Vatican staff and the cardinals all take an oath of secrecy.
How does the voting work?
On Day 1, one round of voting is possible, consisting of two ballots in the afternoon.
From Day 2 onward, there are two rounds of voting daily, one in the morning, one in the afternoon.
To be elected pope, a candidate must receive a two-thirds majority plus one.
If no decision is reached after three days, there is a one-day pause for prayer and discussion before voting resumes.
What’s the deal with the smoke?
After each round, ballots are burned:
To avoid confusion, chemicals are now added to make the smoke clearly black or white.
How long can it take?
There’s no time limit. History shows extremes:
In modern times, it’s much quicker:
Who are the major names to watch?
Pietro Parolin, 70 (Italy)
The Vatican Secretary of State. Seen as a bureaucratic steady hand, but critics on both sides question his stances on same-sex marriage and dealings with China. A compromise candidate.
Luis Antonio Tagle, 67 (Philippines)
Charismatic and popular, dubbed the “Asian Francis”. Advocates for the poor and migrants. But has faced criticism for being too quiet on clerical abuse and Duterte’s drug war.
Fridolin Ambongo, 65 (Congo)
Francis loyalist and member of the pope’s Council of Cardinals. A symbol of the Church’s vibrant growth in Africa — but opposed Francis’ stance on same-sex couple blessings.
Anders Arborelius, 75 (Sweden)
Sweden’s first cardinal. Advocates for migrants and women’s roles in the Church. Humble and soft-spoken — even joked about an AI predicting his 5% odds.
Jean-Marc Aveline, 66 (France)
Prominent for his work in interfaith dialogue in Marseille. Seen as a modern bridge-builder, though less frequently named in betting lists.
Who are the frontrunners?
Bookmakers may not have a say in Vatican affairs, but betting odds suggest these top contenders:
Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy) – 15/8
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines) – 5/2
Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana) – 5/1
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy) – 6/1
Bookies are also taking bets on the future pope’s name — popular guesses include Leo and Pius.
Why this conclave may surprise us
The College of Cardinals has changed dramatically under Francis. He appointed many new members from diverse regions, diluting traditional voting blocs. Many cardinals don’t even know each other well.
This increases the possibility of unexpected alliances and surprises, just like in 2013, when Jorge Mario Bergoglio (now Pope Francis) wasn’t even a favorite going in.
As the world turns its eyes to the smoke rising from the Sistine Chapel, the 2025 papal conclave promises a blend of ancient ritual, global politics, and unpredictable outcomes.
Here's all you need to know about how the next pope will be chosen.
What is the papal conclave?
The papal conclave is the secretive, centuries-old process by which the Roman Catholic Church elects a new pope. This week, 133 cardinal electors , among the Church’s most senior officials, will gather behind sealed doors in the Sistine Chapel to begin this sacred ritual.
The term conclave comes from the Latin cum clave, meaning “with a key” — a nod to how the cardinals are literally locked inside the chapel until a decision is made.
When does it start?
The conclave begins on today, May 7, 2025, exactly 16 days after the death of Pope Francis.
Who can become pope?
Technically, any Catholic male is eligible. But in practice, for centuries, popes have only been chosen from among the cardinals.
Where does it happen?
Inside Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel, which is swept for listening devices and sealed shut for the duration of the conclave. Vatican staff and the cardinals all take an oath of secrecy.
How does the voting work?
On Day 1, one round of voting is possible, consisting of two ballots in the afternoon.
From Day 2 onward, there are two rounds of voting daily, one in the morning, one in the afternoon.
To be elected pope, a candidate must receive a two-thirds majority plus one.
If no decision is reached after three days, there is a one-day pause for prayer and discussion before voting resumes.
What’s the deal with the smoke?
After each round, ballots are burned:
- Black smoke = No pope yet.
- White smoke = A new pope has been chosen.
To avoid confusion, chemicals are now added to make the smoke clearly black or white.
How long can it take?
There’s no time limit. History shows extremes:
- Shortest: 1503 — just 10 hours to elect Pope Pius III.
- Longest: 1268–1271 — nearly 3 years to elect Pope Gregory X after locals in Viterbo locked the cardinals in!
In modern times, it’s much quicker:
- 2013: Pope Francis elected after 5 ballots over 2 days
- 2005: Pope Benedict XVI elected in 4 ballots
- 1978: Pope John Paul II elected in 8 ballots over 2 days
Who are the major names to watch?
Pietro Parolin, 70 (Italy)
The Vatican Secretary of State. Seen as a bureaucratic steady hand, but critics on both sides question his stances on same-sex marriage and dealings with China. A compromise candidate.
Luis Antonio Tagle, 67 (Philippines)
Charismatic and popular, dubbed the “Asian Francis”. Advocates for the poor and migrants. But has faced criticism for being too quiet on clerical abuse and Duterte’s drug war.
Fridolin Ambongo, 65 (Congo)
Francis loyalist and member of the pope’s Council of Cardinals. A symbol of the Church’s vibrant growth in Africa — but opposed Francis’ stance on same-sex couple blessings.
Anders Arborelius, 75 (Sweden)
Sweden’s first cardinal. Advocates for migrants and women’s roles in the Church. Humble and soft-spoken — even joked about an AI predicting his 5% odds.
Jean-Marc Aveline, 66 (France)
Prominent for his work in interfaith dialogue in Marseille. Seen as a modern bridge-builder, though less frequently named in betting lists.
Who are the frontrunners?
Bookmakers may not have a say in Vatican affairs, but betting odds suggest these top contenders:
Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy) – 15/8
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines) – 5/2
Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana) – 5/1
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy) – 6/1
Bookies are also taking bets on the future pope’s name — popular guesses include Leo and Pius.
Why this conclave may surprise us
The College of Cardinals has changed dramatically under Francis. He appointed many new members from diverse regions, diluting traditional voting blocs. Many cardinals don’t even know each other well.
This increases the possibility of unexpected alliances and surprises, just like in 2013, when Jorge Mario Bergoglio (now Pope Francis) wasn’t even a favorite going in.
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